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Copper State Count

The Legislature

Republicans hold both chambers today: the Senate 17–13 and the House 33–27. A majority takes 16 Senate seats or 31 House seats, so Democrats need a net gain of 3 in the Senate or 4 in the House. All 90 seats are on the ballot.

Browse every district below, or open the battleground what-if to switch seats and see who would control each chamber.

Chamber tracker

Fills in on election night. Called seats will be solid and current leads striped.

State Senate16 of 30 for majority
Democrats, called
0
Democrats, leading
0
No results yet
30
Republicans, leading
0
Republicans, called
0
  • Democrats: 0 called; 0 if current leads hold. They need 16 more of the 30 uncalled seats.
  • Republicans: 0 called; 0 if current leads hold. They need 16 more of the 30 uncalled seats.
State House31 of 60 for majority
Democrats, called
0
Democrats, leading
0
No results yet
60
Republicans, leading
0
Republicans, called
0
  • Democrats: 0 called; 0 if current leads hold. They need 31 more of the 60 uncalled seats.
  • Republicans: 0 called; 0 if current leads hold. They need 31 more of the 60 uncalled seats.

Forecast for control

FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.

State Senate

Democratic majority 38% · Republican majority 44% · even split 19%

Expected seats: D 15.0 · R 15.0

Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST

State House

Democratic majority 3% · Republican majority 94% · even split 3%

Expected seats: D 25.4 · R 34.6

Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST

What prediction markets say about control

Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.

State Senate

  • Kalshi: Democrats 77% · Republicans 18%38K contracts traded
  • Polymarket: Democrats 77% · Republicans 19%$15K traded

State House

  • Kalshi: Democrats 80% · Republicans 14%18K contracts traded

Copper districts are the battleground watchlist. Money is total raised this cycle (2025–26), from the Secretary of State's See The Money. Forecasts are FutureBallot's model, linked to its page for each seat.

The battleground watchlist is LD2, LD4, LD9, LD13, LD16, LD17, LD23. In the what-if, seats outside it stay as they are today, so the bars always add up to 30 and 60.

Battleground candidates, seat holders and district notes: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting. Other districts' candidates: Ballotpedia, read Oct. 26, 2026. This is not the certified candidate list.

Campaign money: Arizona Secretary of State, See The Money, refreshed daily. A dash means we found no campaign committee for that candidate.

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