State House · LD2
North Phoenix
One Democrat is on the ballot for two House seats. Simacek was the top House vote-getter here in 2024. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Paul Carver on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Stephanie Simacek on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Democrat
Justin Wilmeth on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State House, top Democrat vs. top Republican
- D+0.9
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Democrats win at least one of the two seats77%
- Republicans win both seats23%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Simacek has outraised Wilmeth, $253K to $102K.
Simacek has outspent Wilmeth, $150K to $40K.
- Paul Carver (R)See The Money #102198
- Raised
- $13K
- Spent
- $3.3K
- Cash
- $9.7K
- Stephanie Simacek (D)See The Money #101438
- Raised
- $253K
- Spent
- $150K
- Cash
- $107K
- Justin Wilmeth (R)See The Money #100143
- Raised
- $102K
- Spent
- $40K
- Cash
- $161K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Carver | $148K | $30K |
| Simacek | $65K | $337K |
| Wilmeth | $338K | $77K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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