State House · LD23
Yuma and southwest Arizona
Peña was the top House vote-getter in 2024. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Emilia Cortez
Democrat
Gary Garcia Snyder on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Michele Peña on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Mariana Sandoval on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Democrat
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State House, top Democrat vs. top Republican
- R+0.8
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Republicans win both seats62%
- Democrats win at least one of the two seats38%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Most raised: Peña ($85K), then Sandoval ($80K).
Sandoval has outspent Cortez, $49K to $42K.
- Emilia Cortez (D)See The Money #102183
- Raised
- $66K
- Spent
- $42K
- Cash
- $22K
- Gary Garcia Snyder (R)See The Money #102030
- Raised
- $1.5K
- Spent
- $1.2K
- Cash
- $287
- Michele Peña (R)See The Money #101136
- Raised
- $85K
- Spent
- $2.8K
- Cash
- $83K
- Mariana Sandoval (D)See The Money #101415
- Raised
- $80K
- Spent
- $49K
- Cash
- $86K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Cortez | $130K | $114K |
| Garcia Snyder | $275 | $4.2K |
| Peña | $418K | $330K |
| Sandoval | $43K | $320K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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