State Senate · LD23
Yuma and southwest Arizona
The Independent Redistricting Commission's measure gives Democrats about a 17-point edge. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Michelle Altherr
Republican
Brian Fernandez on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Democrat
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State Senate result
- D+7.6
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Fernandez96%
- Altherr4%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Most raised: Fernandez ($122K), then Altherr ($11K).
Fernandez has outspent Altherr, $59K to $8.4K.
- Michelle Altherr (R)See The Money #101475
- Raised
- $11K
- Spent
- $8.4K
- Cash
- $2.9K
- Brian Fernandez (D)See The Money #100869
- Raised
- $122K
- Spent
- $59K
- Cash
- $123K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Altherr | $12K | $0 |
| Fernandez | $45K | $87K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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