State Senate · LD4
Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, north Phoenix
Werner defeated Christine Marsh in 2024 by just under 4 points. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Carine Werner on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State Senate result
- R+3.7
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Werner63%
- Lieberman37%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Werner has outraised Lieberman, $755K to $541K.
Lieberman has outspent Werner, $423K to $327K.
- Aaron Lieberman (D)See The Money #101924
- Raised
- $541K
- Spent
- $423K
- Cash
- $113K
- Carine Werner (R)See The Money #101500
- Raised
- $755K
- Spent
- $327K
- Cash
- $438K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Lieberman | $92K | $477K |
| Werner | $572K | $659K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
Last updated