State House · LD17
Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana
Volk won a House seat in 2024 in a Republican-leaning district. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Rachel Keshel on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Holly Lyon on X (opens in a new tab)
Democrat
Kevin Volk on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Democrat
John Winchester on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State House, top Democrat vs. top Republican
- D+1.6
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Democrats win at least one of the two seats69%
- Republicans win both seats31%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Most raised: Volk ($384K), then Lyon ($322K).
Most spent: Volk ($222K), then Lyon ($158K).
- Rachel Keshel (R)See The Money #100917
- Raised
- $99K
- Spent
- $29K
- Cash
- $79K
- Holly Lyon (D)See The Money #102112
- Raised
- $322K
- Spent
- $158K
- Cash
- $162K
- Kevin Volk (D)See The Money #101507
- Raised
- $384K
- Spent
- $222K
- Cash
- $169K
- John Winchester (R)See The Money #102004
- Raised
- $281K
- Spent
- $118K
- Cash
- $163K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Keshel | $32K | $127K |
| Lyon | $68K | $266K |
| Volk | $158K | $296K |
| Winchester | $482K | $380K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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