State House · LD16
Pinal County, Casa Grande
One Democrat is on the ballot for two House seats, and one candidate can win at most one of them. Keith Seaman, a former Democratic representative, came within about 2.5 points of a seat in 2024. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Chris Lopez on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Teresa Martinez on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Julia Romero Gusse
Democrat
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State House, top Democrat vs. top Republican
- R+8.4
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Republicans win both seats74%
- Democrats win at least one of the two seats26%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Most raised: Martinez ($152K), then Romero Gusse ($118K).
Most spent: Martinez ($113K), then Romero Gusse ($66K).
- Chris Lopez (R)See The Money #101460
- Raised
- $101K
- Spent
- $26K
- Cash
- $86K
- Teresa Martinez (R)See The Money #100846
- Raised
- $152K
- Spent
- $113K
- Cash
- $62K
- Julia Romero Gusse (D)See The Money #102123
- Raised
- $118K
- Spent
- $66K
- Cash
- $41K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Lopez | $129K | $201K |
| Martinez | $134K | $88K |
| Romero Gusse | $28K | $382K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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