State Senate · LD17
Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana
Open: Vince Leach is not running. He beat John McLean in 2024 by about 2 points. Republicans have a sizable registration advantage. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Chris King on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Edgar Soto on X (opens in a new tab)
Democrat
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State Senate result
- R+2.0
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Soto62%
- King38%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Soto has outraised King, $229K to $226K.
Soto has outspent King, $175K to $120K.
- Chris King (R)See The Money #101966
- Raised
- $226K
- Spent
- $120K
- Cash
- $104K
- Edgar Soto (D)See The Money #102081
- Raised
- $229K
- Spent
- $175K
- Cash
- $50K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| King | $637K | $334K |
| Soto | $179K | $346K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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