State House · LD4
Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, north Phoenix
Republicans swept the district in 2024. The closest House contest was about 1 point. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Tammy Caputi
Democrat
Pamela Carter on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Matt Gress on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State House, top Democrat vs. top Republican
- R+6.5
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Republicans win both seats58%
- Democrats win at least one of the two seats42%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Most raised: Gress ($568K), then Caputi ($416K).
Most spent: Gress ($317K), then Caputi ($185K).
- Tammy Caputi (D)See The Money #102132
- Raised
- $416K
- Spent
- $185K
- Cash
- $227K
- Pamela Carter (R)See The Money #101510
- Raised
- $221K
- Spent
- $152K
- Cash
- $76K
- Karen Gresham (D)See The Money #101629
- Raised
- $334K
- Spent
- $179K
- Cash
- $162K
- Matt Gress (R)See The Money #100882
- Raised
- $568K
- Spent
- $317K
- Cash
- $255K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Caputi | $151K | $292K |
| Carter | $135K | $77K |
| Gresham | $72K | $262K |
| Gress | $320K | $829K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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