State Senate · LD16
Pinal County, Casa Grande
Shope won in 2024 by about 12 points. Source: Triadvocates Navigator (Sept. 16, 2026) and local reporting.
Candidates
Elaine Aldrete
Democrat
T.J. Shope on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- Rating
- Pending source
- 2024 State Senate result
- R+12.0
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Shope88%
- Aldrete12%
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 11:31 PM MST
Prediction markets
No prediction market is tracking this race.
Campaign money
Most raised: Shope ($284K), then Aldrete ($17K).
Most spent: Shope ($101K), then Aldrete ($5.4K).
- Elaine Aldrete (D)See The Money #101975
- Raised
- $17K
- Spent
- $5.4K
- Cash
- $8K
- T.J. Shope (R)See The Money #101991
- Raised
- $284K
- Spent
- $101K
- Cash
- $183K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Aldrete | $0 | $269K |
| Shope | $89K | $0 |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
Last updated