Secretary of State
Candidates
Duwayne Collier
Green
Adrian Fontes on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Democrat
Alexander Kolodin on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Polls
Polling average
Fontes +6.0
Uncertainty range: Fontes −2.2 to +14.2 (±8.2). Either candidate could be ahead.
- Adrian Fontes (D)49.7%
- Alexander Kolodin (R)43.7%
- Undecided5.5%
Weighted average of 2 verified polls from the last 45 days, one per pollster.
Polling average margin over time. Latest: Fontes ahead by 6.0 points.
↓ Kolodin ahead
Line: average margin. Shaded: uncertainty range.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Collier | Fontes | Kolodin | Und. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive InsightsNonpartisan: Noble Predictive Insights (self-funded) | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 511 LV | — | 50 | 44 | 5 | 84% |
| GrayHouseCampaign: Friends of Elijah Norton (R candidate for Treasurer) · half weight | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 550 LV | — | 48 | 42 | 8 | 16% |
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot doesn't publish a forecast for this race.
Prediction markets
Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
Solid: Kalshi. Dashed: Polymarket.
Polls vs. markets
- Poll average
- Fontes +6.0
- Market favorite (avg. of 2 exchanges)
- Fontes 87%
Same leader, though the poll lead is within its uncertainty range.
Campaign money
Fontes has outraised Kolodin, $2.65M to $605K.
Fontes has outspent Kolodin, $2M to $211K.
- Duwayne Collier (G)No filing found
- Adrian Fontes (D)See The Money #100622
- Raised
- $2.65M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash
- $713K
- Alexander Kolodin (R)See The Money #100625
- Raised
- $605K
- Spent
- $211K
- Cash
- $420K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Fontes | $304K | $4.6K |
| Kolodin | $21K | $248K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
Last updated