Governor
First election with a Lieutenant Governor: each candidate for Governor runs on a joint ticket with a running mate, and voters choose one ticket.
Candidates
Risa Lombardo
Lisa Castillo for Lieutenant Governor
Green
Write-in: Gertritrude Gonzalez, Alice Novoa
Polls
Polling average
Hobbs +7.0
Uncertainty range: Hobbs +1.3 to +12.8 (±5.8).
- Andy Biggs (R)42.8%
- Katie Hobbs (D)49.9%
- Teri Ann Hourihan (NL)2.0%
- Risa Lombardo (G)0.0%
- Undecided3.3%
Weighted average of 5 verified polls from the last 45 days, one per pollster.
Polling average margin over time. Latest: Hobbs ahead by 7.0 points.
↓ Biggs ahead
Line: average margin. Shaded: uncertainty range.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Biggs | Hobbs | Hourihan | Lombardo | Und. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive InsightsNonpartisan: Noble Predictive Insights (self-funded) | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 511 LV | 45 | 51 | — | — | 3 | 28% |
| HighGround, Inc.Nonpartisan: HighGround Public Affairs (self-funded) | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | 39.3 | 51.5 | — | — | — | 21% |
| RedBox ResearchD-aligned: A Fight Worth Having (donations via ActBlue) · half weight | Oct 20–Oct 23 | 2,686 LV | 42.3 | 47.4 | — | — | — | 25% |
| GrayHouseCampaign: Friends of Elijah Norton (R candidate for Treasurer) · half weight | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 550 LV | 45 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10% |
| Wick | Oct 3–Oct 6 | 1,513 LV | 43.2 | 48.9 | — | — | 4.5 | 16% |
Verified polls not in the average (2)
- GrayHouse, 2026-10-08: Pollster has a newer poll
- HighGround, Inc., 2026-10-08: Pollster has a newer poll
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Hobbs96%
- Biggs4%
Rating: Safe D · Expected margin: D+10.5
The model sets the Democrat against the Republican; other candidates aren't modelled.
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 30, 5:55 PM MST
Prediction markets
Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
Solid: Kalshi. Dashed: Polymarket.
Polls vs. markets
- Poll average
- Hobbs +7.0
- Market favorite (avg. of 2 exchanges)
- Hobbs 92%
Polls and markets have the same leader.
Campaign money
Hobbs has outraised Biggs, $15M to $5.76M.
Hobbs has outspent Biggs, $17.8M to $5.25M.
- Andy Biggs (R)See The Money #101830
- Raised
- $5.76M
- Spent
- $5.25M
- Cash
- $507K
- Katie Hobbs (D)See The Money #201800057
- Raised
- $15M
- Spent
- $17.8M
- Cash
- $672K
- Teri Ann Hourihan (NL)No filing found
- Risa Lombardo (G)No filing found
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Biggs | $9.07M | $387K |
| Hobbs | $641K | $13.5M |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
Spending can top this cycle's fundraising when a campaign started the cycle with cash on hand.
Last updated