U.S. House · CD9
Candidates
Paul Gosar on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Danielle Sterbinsky
Democrat
Write-in: G. Seville Hatch, William Perry
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- 2024 U.S. House result
- R+30.6
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Gosar>99%
- Sterbinsky<1%
Rating: Safe R · Expected margin: R+23.4
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 31, 12:04 AM MST
Prediction markets
Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
Campaign money
Gosar has outraised Sterbinsky, $814K to $462K.
Gosar has outspent Sterbinsky, $655K to $432K.
- Paul Gosar (R)FEC filing
- Raised
- $814K
- Spent
- $655K
- Cash
- $250K
- Danielle Sterbinsky (D)FEC filing
- Raised
- $462K
- Spent
- $432K
- Cash
- $34K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Gosar | $817 | $0 |
| Sterbinsky | $0 | $0 |
FEC reports for the 2025–26 cycle, through Oct 14. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
Last updated