U.S. House · CD7
Candidates
Daniel Butierez on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Adelita Grijalva on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Democrat
Polls
Not enough polling
No verified polls from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- 2024 U.S. House result
- D+26.9
- Registration
- Pending source
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Grijalva>99%
- Butierez<1%
Rating: Safe D · Expected margin: D+32.2
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 31, 12:04 AM MST
Prediction markets
Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
Kalshi has a market on this race, but it's too thin to show (under 1,000 traded, or a bid-ask gap over 10¢). See it on Kalshi.
Campaign money
Most raised: Grijalva ($2.56M), then Butierez ($234K).
Grijalva has outspent Butierez, $2.12M to $223K.
- Daniel Butierez (R)FEC filing
- Raised
- $234K
- Spent
- $223K
- Cash
- $11K
- Adelita Grijalva (D)FEC filing
- Raised
- $2.56M
- Spent
- $2.12M
- Cash
- $438K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Butierez | $0 | $0 |
| Grijalva | $385K | $33K |
FEC reports for the 2025–26 cycle, through Oct 14. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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