U.S. House · CD6
Candidates
Juan Ciscomani on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Republican
Jereme Peters
Libertarian
Write-in: Michael Dorland
Polls
Not enough polling
Only 1 verified poll from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- 2024 U.S. House result
- R+2.5
- Registration
- Pending source
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ciscomani | Mendoza | Peters | Swing | Und. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox ResearchD-aligned: A Fight Worth Having (donations via ActBlue) | Oct 20–Oct 23 | 837 LV | 42.6 | 47.2 | — | — | — |
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Mendoza66%
- Ciscomani34%
Rating: Lean D · Expected margin: D+2.3
The model sets the Democrat against the Republican; other candidates aren't modelled.
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 31, 12:04 AM MST
Prediction markets
Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
Solid: Kalshi. Dashed: Polymarket.
Campaign money
Mendoza has outraised Ciscomani, $11.2M to $7.65M.
Mendoza has outspent Ciscomani, $10.4M to $7.27M.
- Juan Ciscomani (R)FEC filing
- Raised
- $7.65M
- Spent
- $7.27M
- Cash
- $619K
- JoAnna Mendoza (D)FEC filing
- Raised
- $11.2M
- Spent
- $10.4M
- Cash
- $808K
- Jereme Peters (L)FEC filing
- Raised
- $11K
- Spent
- $11K
- Cash
- $0
- Gary Swing (G)FEC filing
- Raised
- $0
- Spent
- $0
- Cash
- $0
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Ciscomani | $20K | $2.54M |
| Mendoza | $104K | $2.28M |
| Peters | $0 | $0 |
| Swing | $0 | $0 |
FEC reports for the 2025–26 cycle, through Oct 14. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
Last updated