U.S. House · CD1
Candidates
Monica Alponte on X (opens in a new tab)
Libertarian
Jay Feely on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Amish Shah on X (opens in a new tab)
Democrat
Write-in: Dev Gupta, Gage Dylan Thunder
Polls
Not enough polling
Only 1 verified poll from the last 45 days. We show an average only with at least 2. Why?
- 2024 U.S. House result
- R+3.8
- Registration
- Pending source
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Alponte | Feely | Shah | Und. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox ResearchD-aligned: A Fight Worth Having (donations via ActBlue) | Oct 20–Oct 23 | 851 LV | — | 43.2 | 48.7 | — |
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot's model, not ours: a chance of winning from polls, past results and campaign money. We never call races.
- Shah69%
- Feely31%
Rating: Lean D · Expected margin: D+3.0
The model sets the Democrat against the Republican; other candidates aren't modelled.
Source: FutureBallot · forecast of Oct 31, 12:04 AM MST
Prediction markets
Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
Solid: Kalshi. Dashed: Polymarket.
Campaign money
Shah has outraised Feely, $5.65M to $3.8M.
Shah has outspent Feely, $5.54M to $3.62M.
- Monica Alponte (L)FEC filing
- Raised
- $9.5K
- Spent
- $8.7K
- Cash
- $754
- Jay Feely (R)FEC filing
- Raised
- $3.8M
- Spent
- $3.62M
- Cash
- $183K
- Amish Shah (D)FEC filing
- Raised
- $5.65M
- Spent
- $5.54M
- Cash
- $206K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Alponte | $0 | $0 |
| Feely | $834K | $1.77M |
| Shah | $285K | $5.86M |
FEC reports for the 2025–26 cycle, through Oct 14. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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