Attorney General
Candidates
Kris Mayes on X (opens in a new tab) (incumbent)
Democrat
Warren Petersen on X (opens in a new tab)
Republican
Polls
Polling average
Mayes +3.7
Uncertainty range: Mayes −4.0 to +11.5 (±7.7). Either candidate could be ahead.
- Kris Mayes (D)50.0%
- Warren Petersen (R)46.3%
- Undecided3.5%
Weighted average of 2 verified polls from the last 45 days, one per pollster.
Polling average margin over time. Latest: Mayes ahead by 3.7 points.
↓ Petersen ahead
Line: average margin. Shaded: uncertainty range.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Mayes | Petersen | Und. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive InsightsNonpartisan: Noble Predictive Insights (self-funded) | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 511 LV | 50 | 46 | 4 | 74% |
| GrayHouseCampaign: Friends of Elijah Norton (R candidate for Treasurer) · half weight | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 550 LV | 50 | 47 | 2 | 26% |
Verified polls not in the average (1)
- GrayHouse, 2026-10-08: Pollster has a newer poll
Polls are entered by hand from each pollster's release and checked against the source before they count. How the average works
Forecast model
FutureBallot doesn't publish a forecast for this race.
Prediction markets
Market price = implied probability. It's what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
Solid: Kalshi. Dashed: Polymarket.
Polls vs. markets
- Poll average
- Mayes +3.7
- Market favorite (avg. of 2 exchanges)
- Mayes 85%
Same leader, though the poll lead is within its uncertainty range.
Campaign money
Mayes has outraised Petersen, $6M to $2.15M.
Mayes has outspent Petersen, $5.41M to $2.09M.
- Kris Mayes (D)See The Money #100626
- Raised
- $6M
- Spent
- $5.41M
- Cash
- $1.03M
- Warren Petersen (R)See The Money #201600171
- Raised
- $2.15M
- Spent
- $2.09M
- Cash
- $250K
Outside spending
Independent expenditures by groups not controlled by any campaign, reported as for or against each candidate.
| Candidate | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Mayes | $554K | $45K |
| Petersen | $672K | $79K |
Reports filed with the Arizona Secretary of State for 2025–26. Retrieved Oct 31, 6:09 AM MST.
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